Friday, September 30, 2011

Patience: How to find the best place to live

This morning I was speaking with the head of our data team when he mentioned several listings that he has seen reduced in price by as much as 80 percent over the last year or so. Right now represents a truly great opportunity to find amazing deals. Sometimes it just takes patience. As we researched [...]

Source: http://blog.foreclosure.com/2011/08/patience-how-to-find-the-best-place-to-live/

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President Obama: We Need to Do Everything We Can to Prepare Our Kids for the Future

President Obama on the American Jobs Act in Denver

President Barack Obama waves to the crowd after addressing Abraham Lincoln High School, Denver, Colorado, Sept. 27, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Today, President Obama visited the Abraham Lincoln High School in Denver, Colorado to talk about how the American Jobs Act will help modernize schools like Lincoln High all across the country. The President is proposing a $25 billion investment in school infrastructure to repair and upgrade at least 35,000 public schools because, as he said today, “Every child deserves a great school – and we can give it to them. We can rebuild our schools for the 21st century, with faster internet, smarter labs and cutting-edge technology.” 

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) awarded the United States a ‘D’ for the condition of our public school infrastructure and the statistics are grim. The average public school building in the United States is over 40 years old, and many are much older. Schools spend over $6 billion annually on their energy bills, more than they spend on computers and textbooks combined.  Forty three states reported that one-third or more of their schools do not meet all of the functional requirements necessary to effectively teach laboratory science, knowledge that is critical if we are to prepare our children for the jobs of the future. The Job Act’s school infrastructure funds can be used for a range of much needed emergency projects, including greening and energy efficiency upgrades, asbestos removal and modernization efforts to build new science and computer labs and upgrade the technology infrastructure in our schools. The President’s goal is to create a better, safer learning environment for all students: 

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Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/27/president-obama-we-need-do-everything-we-can-prepare-our-kids-future

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Fixer uppers: How to find that foreclosure ?diamond in the rough?

Look for the shabbiest house on the nicest block in town. Spruce it up. Sell for profit. That’s a real estate investing recipe for success more often than not, especially if you can discern between money pits and money makers. When it comes to flipping foreclosures, or even purchasing a discounted distressed property as a [...]

Source: http://blog.foreclosure.com/2011/09/fixer-uppers-how-to-find-that-foreclosure-diamond-in-the-rough/

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Hawaiian Paradise Becomes a Ghost Town

With the global economy in turmoil and real-estate wounds still festering across the country, there's trouble in paradise, as Shawn Langlois explains on The News Hub.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/video/hawaiian-paradise-becomes-a-ghost-town/0005FF25-CCC7-45F1-9D32-CE8D1E4DEF1E.html

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Libyan Forces Clash in Sirte, US Lawmakers Visit NTC

Intense fighting is under way between provisional government fighters, Moammar Gadhafi's holdouts for control of Gadhafi's hometown

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Libyan-Forces-Clash-in-Sirte-US-Lawmakers-Visit-NTC-130783183.html

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'Occupy Wall Street' Protesters in NYC Decry Corruption, Greed

Sprawled around a plaza in heart of New York?s financial district, demonstrators carry signs, chant slogans, camp out

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/economy-and-business/Occupy-Wall-Street-Protesters-in-NYC-Decry-Corruption-Greed-130886803.html

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Fed moves, economic worries send mortgage rates to new lows

Applications for purchase loans roughly flat despite cheap loans

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/inmannews/~3/kkBxBGiLtso/fed-moves-economic-worries-send-mortgage-rates-new-lows

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Update on Oil Economic Impacts

A quick update on previous post on oil: Goldman Sachs now estimates high oil prices -- if they stay at current levels -- will shave 1% of GDP next year. But that won't feed through to "core" inflation. Just a 2/10ths of a percentage point hit there.

Of course, a much higher oil spike has much larger impact.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/03/update_on_oil_economic_impacts.html

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Real estate apps and technology for homebuyers and investors

Technology is a beautiful thing.�It can also be stressful and confusing, if you’re a little late to the game and unsure of where to start. Apps, smart phones, iPads and other innovations are all the rage these days. Real estate agents, sellers, buyers and investors are all taking advantage of the latest technology to expedite [...]

Source: http://blog.foreclosure.com/2011/08/real-estate-apps-and-technology-for-homebuyers-and-investors/

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Oct. 1: Conforming Mortgage Limit Changes from $729,750 to $625,500

If you happen to live in one of the more expensive regions of the country, take note. Come October 1, the temporarily elevated conforming loan limit [...]

Source: http://www.zillow.com/blog/2011-09-28/conforming-mortgage-limit-set-to-drop-oct-1/

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First Lady Michelle Obama: When You Make Life Easier for Working Parents, It?s a Win for Everyone Involved

First Lady Michelle Obama today spoke about the importance of supporting and retaining women and girls who choose careers in the fields of science, technology, engineering and science, the so-called STEM disciplines.

“If we’re going to out-innovate and out-educate the rest of the world, then we have to open doors to everyone,” said Mrs. Obama during an event at the White House held to announce the NSF Career-Life Balance Initiative. “We need all hands on deck. And that means clearing hurdles for women and girls as they navigate careers in science, technology, engineering and math.”

First Lady Michelle Obama on the National Science Foundation's Career-Life Balance Initiative

First Lady Michelle Obama addresses the National Science Foundation's Career-Life Balance initiative event in the East Room of the White House Sept. 26, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

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Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/26/first-lady-michelle-obama-when-you-make-life-easier-working-parents-it-s-win-everyon

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Bahrain Sentences Medical Workers for Treating Protesters

Security court sentences 20 doctors, medics to jail time ranging from five years to 15 years in prison

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Bahrain-Sentences-Medical-Workers-for-Treating-Protesters-130783953.html

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Tackling Waste in Contracting

As part of the Administration’s Campaign to Cut Waste, OMB’s Office of Federal Procurement Policy (OFPP) released guidance today to reduce wasteful duplication in federal contracting.  Too often in the past, agency spending for many commonly-used items was fragmented across multiple departments, programs, and components, which means that agencies often spent time writing hundreds of separate contracts, with pricing that varies widely.  The result is a waste of limited staff time and energy, and prices that are not as good as they should be.  At a Cabinet meeting earlier this month, Vice President Biden pointed out that by leveraging their purchasing power agencies can save taxpayer dollars. He directed each agency leader to conduct a waste and efficiency review, targeting unnecessary or inefficient spending in areas like contracting. 

OFPP’s new guidance will aid agencies in eliminating waste and carrying out the reviews ordered by the Vice President by addressing concerns, raised by GAO and others, that agencies may be unnecessarily duplicating each other’s contracting efforts. This guidance requires agencies to prepare ”business cases” - analyses to ensure they aren’t duplicating an existing contract and that they are getting the best value  for taxpayers- before they establish or renew certain interagency and agency-specific contracts for commonly-used goods and services, such as office supplies and wireless services. Doing this kind of due diligence and comparison-shopping is something that many families across the country do, and it is especially important that the Federal government weigh all the options before entering into large contracts and agreements whose scope would overlap contracts that already exist.  In the business case, agencies are required to balance the value of creating a new contract against the benefit of using an existing one, and whether the expected return from investment in the proposed contract is worth the taxpayer resources. Insisting on that cost/benefit analysis in the business cases should go a long way to avoiding duplicative contracts.

read more

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/29/tackling-waste-contracting

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Hawaiian Paradise Becomes a Ghost Town

With the global economy in turmoil and real-estate wounds still festering across the country, there's trouble in paradise, as Shawn Langlois explains on The News Hub.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/video/hawaiian-paradise-becomes-a-ghost-town/0005FF25-CCC7-45F1-9D32-CE8D1E4DEF1E.html

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10 toxic towns

Contamination and disaster caused some of these cities to cease being.

Source: http://realestate.msn.com/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=30712769

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Watch Live: President Obama?s Open for Questions Roundtable

Over the last week, Yahoo!, MSN Latino, AOL Latino and HuffPost LatinoVoices have been collecting your questions for President Obama on issues like the economy, job creation, education and fixing our immigration system to meet our 21st century economic and security needs.

Today, President Obama will hear from you in a special Open for Question roundtable addressing questions that you submitted to Yahoo!, MSN Latino, AOL Latino and HuffPost LatinoVoices. The roundtable will be available in both English and Spanish.

Tune in to the discussion live at 11:25 a.m. EDT at WhiteHouse.gov/live and learn more about President Obama’s commitment to increasing opportunity for the Hispanic community and all Americans.

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/28/watch-live-president-obama-s-open-questions-roundtable

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Rent vs. Buy: Homeownership Beats Renting in 3 out of 4 U.S. Cities

Once again, Trulia has examined the cost of renting versus buying in America’s 50 largest cities. Making an apples-to-apples comparison between the renting and buying a two-bedroom apartment, condo or townhouse, we found that buying is more affordable in 72% of major cities.
To find out what’s better where you live, you can check out [...]

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TruliaBlog/~3/XQ1jaZd__RQ/

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Gadhafi Collapse Raises Concerns Over Arms for Africa al-Qaida

Human Rights Watch says thousands of mines, mortars, and shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles are missing from Gadhafi arsenals

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/-Gadhafi-Collapse-Raises-Concerns-Over-Arms-For-Africa-al-Qaida-130788458.html

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Strauss-Kahn Meets Rape Accuser at Paris Police Station

Tristane Banon says former International Monetary Fund chief tried to rape her during a 2003 interview

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Strauss-Kahn-Meets-Rape-Accuser-at-Paris-Police-Station-130771238.html

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Oil Prices and the Economic Rules of the Road

$3.50 a gallon gas tends to concentrate the economic mind. With civil war raging in Libya, oil prices are spiking and it's natural to wonder what impact all this will have on our fragile recovery.

The damage depends on several factors. First, how big is the shock? A 20% increase has less impact than a 33% spike. Second, how long does the spike last? If Libya stabilizes quickly, the damage may be slight. Third, how efficient is the economy in using energy? As the President pointed out today, we now get way more economic output for a barrel of crude than we did back in 70s and 80s. Mr. Obama noted we use 7% less oil today than we did in 2005.

With all that in mind, the economic rule of thumb for the U.S. is that a 33% spike in prices might shave around 3/10ths of a percentage point off GDP in the first year and 1/2 a percentage point the second. In a $15 trillion economy, that is roughly $75 billion. Painful, but not insurmountable.

Of course, Libya is only 2% of world oil supply. If we have a bigger disruption, $3.50 gas may start to look cheap.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/03/oil_prices_and_the_economic_ru.html

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India Requires Citizens to Register for Biometric Identity Number

Project will create mammoth database aimed at giving poor people better access to government, financial services

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/south/India-Requires-Citizens-to-Register-for-Biometric-Identity-Number-130774278.html

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Fighting Between Tribal, Government Forces Escalates in Yemen

Several people reportedly killed during intense fighting in northern district of Sana'a

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Fighting-Erupts-in-Yemeni-Capital-130765578.html

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Famine in the Horn of Africa: Be a Part of the Solution

Dr. Jill Biden on the Late Show with David Letterman

Dr. Biden and David Letterman refer to a map of Africa while discussing the Somalia famine relief efforts. (Photo from the Late Show with David Letterman)

Last Monday, the U.S. Agency for International Development, in partnership with the Ad Council, launched a public awareness campaign called “FWD” – standing for Famine, War, Drought - to draw the attention to the humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa. 

The campaign is calling on Americans to FWD the Facts.  FWD them to your friends, FWD them to your neighbors, FWD them to everyone you know. 

A few of the facts: 

  • More than 13 million people are in crisis – making this the largest humanitarian crisis in the world.
  • More than 700,000 people have fled from their homes in Somalia to Ethiopia and Kenya – creating the world’s largest refugee camps.
  • 1 child is dying every 6 minutes in Somalia.
  • More than 750,000 people are projected to perish from starvation in Somalia within the next four months if humanitarians are not allowed access in to southern Somalia. 

read more

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/26/famine-horn-africa-be-part-solution

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Thursday, September 29, 2011

New Home Sales Continue Drifting Near All-Time Lows

Sales of new single-family homes continue to drag along the bottom of their all-time range.  In the most recent estimate released jointly by the Census Bureau and HUD, sales fell 2.3 percent to an annual rate of 295k (seasonally adjusted).  Despite the amount of New Homes on market dropping to an all-time low of 162,000, the downtick in sales was enough to nudge months of supply slightly higher from 6.5 to 6.6 (months of supply have been either 6.5 or 6.6 since April).

Prices also declined, with the median price falling from $228k to $209k, it's lowest since October 2010.  Average prices effectively matched their January 2009 lows, falling from $269k to $246k.  With the exception of January 2009, you'd have to go back to October 2003 to find a lower average price.

...(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09262011_new_home_sales.asp

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Majority Leader Eric Cantor Speaks at Stanford about Innovation. The Federal Government Plays a Role

Majority Leader Eric Cantor just wrapped up a speech to students and faculty at Stanford today, lauding the private sector as a source of innovation in our economy. Absolutely true. We have the most dynamic private sector in the world.

You can find Cantor's speech here.

Cantor's point is that the people, not the government will generate jobs and growth:


Individual initiative in the private sector has been and always will be the wellspring of America's prosperity provided we don't stifle it.

Also true.

But Cantor, while hailing the innovation that comes out of Stanford's famous labs, failed to mention that federal and state governments lavished $36 billion on university research in 2009. The federal government is the largest source of university research dollars. And Stanford is one of the top universities in the country receiving federal dollars for research.

Turns out a lot of government money is involved in helping along private sector innovation.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/03/majority_leader_eric_cantor_sp.html

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Former Idol Judge Asks $10 Million for L.A. Home

Songwriter and former "American Idol" judge Kara DioGuardi has put her Studio City, California home on the market for about $10 million. Candace Jackson has details on Lunch Break.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/video/former-idol-judge-asks-10-million-for-la-home/E6288753-2F6D-46EE-91D1-DCE10613A430.html

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Arne Duncan: The President's Plan for the Economy and Education

This oped by Arne Duncan was originally published in the Denver Post

Imagine Steve Jobs trying to design the next generation of tablet computers using mainframe hardware from the Eisenhower administration. Or American automakers trying to out-engineer foreign competitors on an assembly line with equipment from the 1960s.

Unfortunately, just such antiquated facilities and barriers to innovation exist today in precisely the institutions that can least afford it: our nation's public schools. The digital age has now penetrated virtually every nook of American life, with the exception of many public schools.

The average public school building in the United States is more than 40 years old. Nationwide, cash-strapped school districts face an enormous $270 billion backlog of deferred maintenance and repairs.

On Tuesday, President Obama spoke at Abraham Lincoln High School in Denver about the need to urgently modernize public schools, and the importance of keeping teachers in the classroom, instead of in unemployment lines.

In the American Jobs Act, President Obama proposes to invest $30 billion to repair and modernize public schools and community colleges, putting hundreds of thousands of unemployed construction workers, engineers, boiler repairmen, and electrical workers back to work. He proposed an additional $30 billion to keep hundreds of thousands of educators facing potential layoffs and furloughs on the job.

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Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/28/arne-duncan-presidents-plan-economy-and-education-0

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Is It Wise to Rent from a Family Member or Friend?

By Salvatore Friscia, San Diego Premier Property Management, San Diego, CA Most renters start their search for a new apartment online, perusing rental websites and filtering [...]

Source: http://www.zillow.com/blog/2011-09-28/is-it-wise-to-rent-from-a-family-member-or-friend/

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Richard Chamberlain Sells Maui Home for $13.8M

Actor Richard Chamberlain has sold his oceanfront home in Maui for $13.8 million. Candace Jackson has details on Lunch Break.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/video/richard-chamberlain-sells-maui-home-for-138m/63474554-B123-4FAF-8D76-4199BAD7080D.html

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An Honest Conversation about Medicare

Power Town

House Speaker John Boehner this week called for "honest conversations" about Medicare.

Fair enough. Let's begin this honest discussion by admitting no one knows for sure how to reduce Medicare costs. And that's a problem, because Medicare expenditures are projected to grow almost 6% a year for the rest of the decade.

To understand why program costs are exploding, you just have to look through the annual Medicare Trustees report on the financial condition of the program. The 2011 report comes out on Friday, but it will surely have the same analysis you can find in all the other reports. If you want to engage in this honest discussion, a good place to start is on page 45 of the 2010 report. There you will find the four trends driving Medicare costs:

  • Growth in the number of beneficiaries
  • Increases in the prices paid per service, which reflect both higher wages for health care workers and higher prices for the goods and services purchased by health care providers
  • Increases in the average number of services per beneficiary ("utilization")
  • Increases in the average complexity of services ("intensity")

Let's take these one at a time. The number of Medicare beneficiaries will soar over the next 25 years, rising from almost 49 million this year to 85 million in 2035. The only way to cut costs here is to kick people out of the program. I don't see that happening.

Wages and prices are the next cost driver. Only two things can be done here. Lower wages for doctors and nurses or make them more productive -- meaning get more work out of doctors and nurses then you get today.

Congress tried to lower wages. It capped payments to physicians using a formula. But when the formula became too tough, forcing deep cuts in wages, Congress relented. Thus the "doc fix" was born. Meaning, Congress voted to pay doctors more. I am not arguing the merits of the formula here, just pointing out that the effort failed.

What about productivity? No surprise, it is harder to measure productivity in a hospital than it is in an auto plant. The hospital's product is good health and an outcome like that is hard to quantify. There is no dispute though that if you could accurately measure health care productivity, it would be low and perhaps even negative!

Some studies found as much as one-third of the spending in our health care system does not improve health, adding up to a staggering waste of more than $700 billion.

What can be done about this? The President has created a panel of experts to study ways to use new payment systems to reward innovation and more efficient treatment of disease.

A worthy goal, but as the Trustees Report points out, efforts to eliminate waste and increase productivity through payment and delivery system reforms:

"These outcomes are far from certain . . . . Many experts doubt the feasibility of such sustained improvements and anticipate that over time the Medicare price constraints would become unworkable and that Congress would likely override them, much as they have done to prevent the reductions in physician payment rates otherwise required by the sustainable growth rate formula in current law."

Republicans want to give consumers more power to choose efficient plans on the theory that this will reward innovation and efficiency. But what happens when the "premium support" payments that Republican propose fail to keep up with the cost of health care? The same thing that happened to physician payments. Congress would likely override them too.

The real problem in Medicare comes when we get to cost drivers three and four. Health care costs are driven by people using more services and more complicated services -- utilization and intensity. In other words, Medicare beneficiaries see health care providers more often and those health care providers are performing more expensive tests and surgeries using new technologies.

Now we are at the heart of the Medicare cost problem. If we're being honest, we must change the way we deliver and consume health care. This is not something that happens overnight or because a bill is written in Washington. It will require constant innovation and reform. We will have to get better at determining which treatments improve health and which do not.

The Brookings Institution's Barry Bosworth put it well in an email: "I think the basic problem is that we cannot say no."

Are we willing to change that? And if not, are we willing to pay for Medicare's rapid growth?

You can having an honest conversation on Medicare means confronting some very difficult questions.


Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/05/an_honest_discussion_on_medica.html

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UN Security Council Discusses New Syria Resolution

For several months, Security Council has been unable to reach an agreement on a strong resolution regarding situation in Syria

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/European-Powers-Threaten-Future-Sanctions-Against-Syria--130691613.html

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House of the Week: Italian Gardens in Vermont

1161 West Rd, Dorset VT For Sale: $1,500,000 Why travel all the way to Italy to enjoy Italian Renaissance-style gardens when you can just walk out [...]

Source: http://www.zillow.com/blog/2011-09-28/house-of-the-week-italian-gardens-in-vermont/

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Hawaiian Paradise Becomes a Ghost Town

With the global economy in turmoil and real-estate wounds still festering across the country, there's trouble in paradise, as Shawn Langlois explains on The News Hub.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/video/hawaiian-paradise-becomes-a-ghost-town/0005FF25-CCC7-45F1-9D32-CE8D1E4DEF1E.html

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Enough about me. Let?s talk about you.

Ah . . . the joys of giving.�
Be generous this holiday season.� Here are 3 ways to give to home buyers and home sellers in your advertising and a...

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheRealEstateBookBlog/~3/ocPW5kwYNBo/

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Walk Score offers tools for commuters

Apartment Search sorts craigslist apartment listings by distance from work

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/inmannews/~3/SAFlI2a82Us/walk-score-offers-tools-commuters

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Normal Accident Theory Revisited

In 2008, I wrote about connections between normal accident theory -- which came from studies of nuclear accidents -- and the subprime mortgage crisis. In light of what is happening in Japan, I think it is worth revisiting normal accident theory. Yes, the crisis in Japan was caused by a natural disaster, but nuclear plants are systems and I am sure we will be learning a lot more about these systems in the days ahead. As we learn more, it will be useful to keep normal accident theory in mind.

So here is an excerpt from my original column which you can find here.

"The issue is not risk, but the issue is power, the power of elites to impose risk upon the rest of us." -- Charles Perrow, Yale Professor of Sociology

Normal accident theory was developed by Yale Sociologist Charles Perrow after the debacle at Three Mile Island. Perrow's fundamental insight is that "accidents" are, in fact, normal events. Rather than blaming failure on a bolt from the blue, we should expect that in any complex system -- a nuclear reactor, the stock market, housing -- there will sometimes occur a series of unusual outcomes which, taken individually, will not trigger a horrific accident. But put them together and you get a crash.

In developing normal accident theory, Perrow found the "interconnectedness" inherent in big systems often led to "baffling" outcomes. In the case of the subprime meltdown, those interactions involved the Federal Reserve, the housing industry, global financial markets and the huge piles of investments managed by hedge funds and banks. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently cited these pools of cash as a factor contributing to the market turmoil.

Between 2000 and 2003, the Fed kept money cheap, lowering interest rates aggressively in order to head off a potentially debilitating spiral of deflation. That decision left these large pools of cash hard-pressed to find good investments. Investment banks saw this pool of capital and decided to create new products made from bundles of mortgages which would meet the demand for higher returns. [It is worth noting another complex interaction: US Treasuries were basically not available to these investors, because the Chinese buy so many of them in order to keep their currency fixed to the dollar.]

It all worked well for a while. But then, as Perrow's theory suggests will often occur, unfamiliar and unexpected things began to happen. Wall Street, seeing a large demand for these new financial products tied to mortgages, began to press home mortgage lenders to increase loan volumes. People with little or no credit began to get bigger and bigger loans. Seeing the success of the bundling of mortgages -- "securitization" is the technical term -- bankers began to use these same techniques in other markets. Loans for buyouts come to mind. Volumes increased and the system began to grow, becoming even more complicated.

Financial markets are also systems that are, as Perrow puts it, "tightly coupled." An action in one system directly impacts and depends upon an action in another part of the system. That is a fair description of the mortgage and securitization process. Loans have to be originated; they must be packaged and quickly sold into the secondary market. There is only one path to success here -- sales into the secondary market. No one wanted to keep these loans on their books, and indeed, seemed to have no contingency for doing so.

Once the pieces began to come apart, there was so little slack in the system no one could engineer a quick fix. Even today, the dispersed nature of bundled securities makes it difficult to rework loans into a structure that makes economic sense.

But it's not enough to understand that our financial and housing markets were flawed and subject to complex interactions. People were also at work here. Someone needed to strike the match and set the lighter fluid burning. In that sense, the housing collapse was not a normal accident. The engineers at Three Mile Island were unaware of the complex interactions between systems that threatened a meltdown. If they had been, Perrow says they would have acted quickly to prevent disaster.

Perrow thinks traders and bankers and mortgage brokers did not try to stop the financial meltdown, because financial markets offer substantial short-term gains, even if it's clear there will be dire long-term consequences. . . .

To get back to the original question: "Who allowed this to happen?" People up and down the system allowed this to happen, because there was no real mechanism to hold them directly responsible for their actions. Many will try to regulate our way back to a safer housing and financial system. I would suggest the best way to start thinking about that process is to focus on accountability. When something goes wrong in a nuclear power plant, the engineer is trying to save his own life along with the lives of those living nearby.

If we want to make sure this doesn't happen again, we need to make sure the people who might cause the next financial crisis are sitting next to the reactor when the yellow caution lights begin to flash.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/03/normal_accident_theory_revisit.html

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Louisville Mayor on American Jobs Act: There?s this Feeling of Hopelessness that We?ve Got to Address

The Sherman Minton Bridge on Interstate 64 in Louisville, Kentucky has been closed for more than three weeks because of an emergency repair situation. Louisville's mayor, Greg Fischer, calls that situation "Exhibit A" for why America needs to be investing in our infrastructure now, and why he supports President Obama's American Jobs Act:

There’s a real sense of urgency right now. A lot of people have been out of work for a long period of time. Their savings are gone or practically gone. So they see where they thought they were going to be fitting in the American dream, and saying, “that may not happen to me anymore right now.” And so there’s this feeling of hopelessness that we’ve got to address, we can’t wait until the next election cycle. This is something the American people need today.

See how other American mayors say the American Jobs Act will impact their cities

Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa of Los Angeles, California
Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake of Baltimore, Maryland
Mayor Michael Hancock of Denver, Colorado
Mayor Mark Mallory of Cincinnati, Ohio

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/28/louisville-mayor-american-jobs-act-there-s-feeling-hopelessness-we-ve-got-address

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Brokered Conventions, Grand Bargains, and the Turning Tide of Federal Deficits

Every four years -- count on it -- some political reporter will write a story about the odds of a brokered convention. You know, a deadlocked presidential nomination battle that ends when the winner emerges from a smoke-filled room only to find our intrepid reporter has already broken the story!

What could be better for a political reporter than that?

Never happens, but reporters can dream -- and write about it.

The economics reporter must settle for something less cinematic. Our version of the "Odds for a Brokered Convention" story is the "Grand Bargain Struck on Deficit."

There is no smoke-filled room in this narrative, merely a drab conference center at Andrews Air Force Base or some other location where reporters can be kept a respectable distance away. The parties emerge late in the evening to pronounce a deal that turns, not on promises to the Florida delegation, but on adjustments to inflation measurements in the Social Security formula that better reflect the actual rate of change in the cost of living.

(Can you imagine anything better? I thought you could.)

Still, I get excited about talk of Grand Bargains and the odds of this happening -- never good to begin with -- are getting better. The tide is moving to deficit reduction. The last-hour deal to avert a government shutdown can be read as a sign of seriousness and progress.

Next, the President will lay out his long-run budget plan on Wednesday. House Republicans have staked out their position. Our grand bargainers are setting the table.

Or not. The problem with Grand Bargains is that they are rare, in part because they ask too much. Problems are rarely solved in a comprehensive way by a small crowd at the table. More likely, Democrats and Republicans will gather for years at many conference tables, cutting many small and medium-sized bargains along the way. At the end of this -- three years? five? -- we'll look back and declare it adds up to a Grand Bargain. If that happens, it will still be a great story.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/04/brokered_conventions_grand_bar.html

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Brokered Conventions, Grand Bargains, and the Turning Tide of Federal Deficits

Every four years -- count on it -- some political reporter will write a story about the odds of a brokered convention. You know, a deadlocked presidential nomination battle that ends when the winner emerges from a smoke-filled room only to find our intrepid reporter has already broken the story!

What could be better for a political reporter than that?

Never happens, but reporters can dream -- and write about it.

The economics reporter must settle for something less cinematic. Our version of the "Odds for a Brokered Convention" story is the "Grand Bargain Struck on Deficit."

There is no smoke-filled room in this narrative, merely a drab conference center at Andrews Air Force Base or some other location where reporters can be kept a respectable distance away. The parties emerge late in the evening to pronounce a deal that turns, not on promises to the Florida delegation, but on adjustments to inflation measurements in the Social Security formula that better reflect the actual rate of change in the cost of living.

(Can you imagine anything better? I thought you could.)

Still, I get excited about talk of Grand Bargains and the odds of this happening -- never good to begin with -- are getting better. The tide is moving to deficit reduction. The last-hour deal to avert a government shutdown can be read as a sign of seriousness and progress.

Next, the President will lay out his long-run budget plan on Wednesday. House Republicans have staked out their position. Our grand bargainers are setting the table.

Or not. The problem with Grand Bargains is that they are rare, in part because they ask too much. Problems are rarely solved in a comprehensive way by a small crowd at the table. More likely, Democrats and Republicans will gather for years at many conference tables, cutting many small and medium-sized bargains along the way. At the end of this -- three years? five? -- we'll look back and declare it adds up to a Grand Bargain. If that happens, it will still be a great story.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/04/brokered_conventions_grand_bar.html

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Pro-Assad Protesters Pelt US Ambassador with Eggs, Tomatoes

Syrian opposition figure says group tried to storm Damascus office where he was meeting with the Ambassador Robert Ford

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/UN-Security-Council-Considers-Syria-Resolution-130776788.html

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Gadhafi May Be Hiding Near Algerian Border

Officials believe former Libyan leader is under ethnic Tuaregs' protection, possibly in western town of Ghadamis

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Intense-Fighting-Continues-in-Gadhafi-Stronghold-130688718.html

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Supporting Scientists at the Lab Bench ... and at Bedtime

Ed note: This has been cross-posted from the Office of Science and Technology's blog

Today is a good day for science and technology, a good day for scientists and engineers, and a good day for the nation.

As highlighted in a Washington Post op-ed this morning, the National Science Foundation (NSF) is announcing a major, 10-year initiative to provide greater work-related flexibility to women and men in research careers. 

Among other advances, the NSF—the Nation’s major funder of research in engineering, computer science, mathematics, and other high-tech fields that will be central to U.S. economic growth in the years ahead—will allow researchers to delay or suspend their grants for up to one year in order to care for a newborn or newly adopted child or fulfill other family obligations.

That change and others being launched today at a White House event featuring First Lady Michelle Obama and NSF Director Subra Suresh aim to facilitate scientists’ reentry into their professions with minimal loss of momentum—especially women scientists, who, more often than not, are the ones who end up delaying or dropping their promising science careers because of competing family demands.

Today the White House also announced the winners of the Presidential Early Career Awards for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE)—the highest honor bestowed by the United States government on science and engineering professionals in the early stages of their research careers.

There’s a great synergy between these two announcements because these up-and-coming researchers are tomorrow’s all-stars in the making, and about 40 percent of them are women. The Nation needs all of these high-achievers, including all those women, to stick with their innovative work—to make the discoveries and design the technologies that will keep America the international science and technology powerhouse it is today.

Finally, special kudos to NSF and others in the Administration, including staff here at OSTP, for using the convening power of the White House and the Obama Administration to encourage businesses and academic and professional organizations to adopt policies similar to those that NSF is putting into place. Several are today announcing ambitious efforts in coordination with NSF’s announcement.  A list of them is available here.

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/26/supporting-scientists-lab-bench-and-bedtime-0

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House of the Week: Italian Gardens in Vermont

1161 West Rd, Dorset VT For Sale: $1,500,000 Why travel all the way to Italy to enjoy Italian Renaissance-style gardens when you can just walk out [...]

Source: http://www.zillow.com/blog/2011-09-28/house-of-the-week-italian-gardens-in-vermont/

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Weekly Address: Strengthening the American Education System

 President Obama explains that states will have greater flexibility to find innovative ways of improving the education system, so that we can raise standards in our classrooms and prepare the next generation to succeed in the global economy. 

Transcript | Download mp4 | Download mp3

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/24/weekly-address-strengthening-american-education-system

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Yemen's President Remains in Office Despite Widespread Opposition

Analysts say President Saleh owes his support to corrupt opposition leaders

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Yemen-President-Remains-in-Office-Despite-Widespread-Opposition-130724678.html

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Syrian Forces Seeking Army Defectors Storm Cities, Killing 8

Activists say dozens of armored vehicles entered central town of Rastan early Tuesday

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Syrian-Troops-Storm-Central-City-130618308.html

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5 Truths About Real Estate Marketing


1.��� Your Competitor is Talking About Your Marketing Plan. �The marketing plan is the #1 reason sellers chose an agent and the #3 reason agents...

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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Why You Should Consider Buying a New Home

In this day of drop-dead prices on existing homes, why would anyone shell out for a new house? Amy Hoak on Lunch Break says there are a few good reasons why home buyers should not ignore new-home construction in their search.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/video/why-you-should-consider-buying-a-new-home/7C168B08-22C6-47E2-A39A-7C1DD49EB562.html

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Michael Jackson's Doctor Claims Singer Caused His Own Death

Dr. Conrad Murray's attorney alleges superstar took drug that led to his death, ignoring doctor's earlier refusal to administer it

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Trial-Underway-for-King-of-Pop-Doctor--130642033.html

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MBA Reports Increased Applications, New Categories of Data

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported this morning that mortgage applications rose slightly during the week ended September 16.  The change was driven by increased applications for refinancing which offset a drop in purchase mortgage applications.

The seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, increased 0.6 percent from the week ended September 9.  On an unadjusted basis the Index rose 25.2 percent, over the previous week which was shortened by the Labor Day holiday.  The four-week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index was down 3.15 percent.

The Refinance Index increased 2.2 percent but its four-week moving average lost 3.91 percent.  The Purchase Index dropped 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 17.1 percent unadjusted compared to the previous four-day holiday week.  The seasonally adjusted moving average was down 0.54 percent.

Refinancing constituted 78.3 percent of total mortgage applications during the week, up from 76.8 percent and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) had a share of 6.7 percent compared to 7.3 percent a week earlier.   

MBA reported that during the month of August, the investor share of purchase mortgage applications was at 5.7 percent, a slight increase from 5.5 percent in July. This change was led by an increase in the Pacific region. In addition, the share of purchase mortgages for second homes increased to 6.0 percent in August from 5.9 percent in July.

The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) was unchanged from the previous week at 4.29 percent while points, including the origination fee, increased from 0.38 point to 0.41 point.  The effective rate for these loans increased.  The average contract rate for 15-year FRM decreased from 3.52 percent to 3.46 percent with points increasing to 0.45 from 0.38; the effective rate also decreased.  Interest rates quoted for both the 15-year and 30-year FRM are for loans with conforming loan balances of $417,500 or less.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages designated as jumbo loans, i.e. with balances over $417,500, decreased to 4.55 percent from 4.57 percent, with points increasing to 0.46 from 0.42. The effective rate increased from the previous week.

The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 4.07 percent from 4.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.51 from 0.48.  The effective rate increased from last week.

The rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 2.96 percent from 2.99 percent, with points increasing to 0.49 from 0.46; the effective rate increased from the previous week. All interest rate information is for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

MBA also announced that their weekly report will reflect an enhanced survey sample which now covers more than 75 percent of all retail and consumer direct channel mortgage applications compared to 50 percent in earlier surveys.  This change in sample size has been analyzed in parallel with data from the old sample since January to ensure comparability.  As is apparent from the report this week, the new survey also gathers data on FHA, Jumbo, and 5/1 Hybrid ARM loans.

Purchase Index vs 30 Yr Fixed

Click Here to View the Purchase Applications Chart

Refinance Index vs 30 Yr Fixed

Click Here to View the Refinance Applications Chart

...(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09212011_mortgage_applications.asp

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Zsa Zsa?s House Gets $2.1M Price Cut

The reported history of previous celebrities hasn't helped Zsa Zsa Gabor's home sell quickly.

Source: http://www.zillow.com/blog/2011-09-28/zsa-zsas-house-gets-2-1m-price-cut/

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Six tips to help with your upcoming move

Congratulations, you recently purchased your new home! Though your goal has been reached and you are happy with your purchase, the hard work is just about to begin. As the excitement wanes you realize what?s ahead…packing, moving, unpacking, organizing, decorating, etc. But don?t fret; there are many resources available to help make this process less [...]

Source: http://www.homefinder.com/news/opening-doors/2011/08/08/six-tips-to-help-with-your-upcoming-move/

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HOPE Now Nears 5 million Loan Modification Mark

HOPE Now, which was the first program initiated to deal with the mounting foreclosure problem in 2007, has reached a level of 4.86 million loan modifications.  HOPE is a voluntary private sector alliance of mortgage servicers, investors, private mortgage insurers and non-profit housing and debt counselors. 

HOPE reports there were 56,000 permanent modifications of proprietary loans during August,  unchanged from the July rate.  This brings the total of proprietary modifications since 2007 to 4.06 million.  An additional 791,399 modifications were completed up to the end of July through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), a joint initiative of the Departments of the Treasury and Housing and Urban Development.  

To date this year HOPE has completed 690,000 permanent loan modifications.  An estimated 478,000 of these were proprietary and 211,749 were completed under HAMP with August HAMP totals not yet tabulated.

Completed foreclosure sales increased in August from 65,000 to 68,000 (+5 percent) and foreclosure starts increased 18 percent from 185,000 in July to 218,000 in August.  Sixty plus day delinquencies were up only slight from July figures at 2.81 million.

Reduced principal and interest payments accounted for approximately 83 percent of modifications in August and 38,000 loans were modified with reductions in principal and interest payments of more than 10 percent.  Eight-three percent of proprietary modifications in August were fixed-rate with initial periods of five years or more.

Faith Schwartz, Executive Director, reports, "HOPE NOW's servicing partners continue to complete permanent loan modifications at a rate consistent with past months - in spite of tremendous negative impact of the continued housing and unemployment crisis.  And, in cases where modifications are not possible, the industry is working hard to educate at-risk homeowners about the options available to them."

...(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09282011_hope_now.asp

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Delivering on the Promise of Innovation to Help Prevent CyberBullying

Last Thursday, the 2nd Annual Bullying Summit closed with demonstrable progress on a range of important topics surfaced during President Obama’s Bullying Prevention Summit last March. Our focus last March was on the challenges and opportunities in preventing cyberbullying. In the months that followed our roundtable, we are pleased to report on two commitments in response to the White House’s “Call to Action”:

  1. Facebook pledged to invest in research grants on the most innovative approaches to bullying prevention found across our Nation’s universities and non-profits.  Last month, Facebook delivered on this promise by launching the $200,000 “Digital Citizenship Research Grant”. We look forward to celebrating the inaugural awardees when they are announced later this fall.
  2. MTV offered to collaborate with the MIT Media Lab to encourage innovative approaches to detect and deter cyberbullying.  MTV and MIT delivered on this promise by formalizing a partnership centered around “Over the Line?”, a Web and iPhone app where young people share and rate personal stories of how technology is complicating social interactions. The app has elicited a strong and empathetic response – with more than 9,000 user-submitted stories generating over 325,000 ratings – and it represents one of the largest bodies of knowledge on youth digital ethics.

read more

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/26/delivering-promise-innovation-help-prevent-cyberbullying

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One dumb tweet can kill a home deal

Experts warn not to say too much online about a real-estate deal.

Source: http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=30660892

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Tennis Legends Compete on Special US Tour

HSBC Champions Series is for players over age of 30

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Tennis-Legends-Compete-on-Special-US-Tour-130664468.html

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Gadhafi May Be Hiding Near Algerian Border

Officials believe former Libyan leader is under ethnic Tuaregs' protection, possibly in western town of Ghadamis

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Intense-Fighting-Continues-in-Gadhafi-Stronghold-130688718.html

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Helpful Home Buying Apps

The apps you need before, during and after your home search Are you in the process of looking for a new home? We?ve got you covered on three apps that can come in handy: one that?s helpful before you go to the house, one for while you are there and one for after you buy. [...]

Source: http://www.homefinder.com/news/opening-doors/2011/07/25/helpful-home-buying-apps/

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An Honest Conversation about Medicare

Power Town

House Speaker John Boehner this week called for "honest conversations" about Medicare.

Fair enough. Let's begin this honest discussion by admitting no one knows for sure how to reduce Medicare costs. And that's a problem, because Medicare expenditures are projected to grow almost 6% a year for the rest of the decade.

To understand why program costs are exploding, you just have to look through the annual Medicare Trustees report on the financial condition of the program. The 2011 report comes out on Friday, but it will surely have the same analysis you can find in all the other reports. If you want to engage in this honest discussion, a good place to start is on page 45 of the 2010 report. There you will find the four trends driving Medicare costs:

  • Growth in the number of beneficiaries
  • Increases in the prices paid per service, which reflect both higher wages for health care workers and higher prices for the goods and services purchased by health care providers
  • Increases in the average number of services per beneficiary ("utilization")
  • Increases in the average complexity of services ("intensity")

Let's take these one at a time. The number of Medicare beneficiaries will soar over the next 25 years, rising from almost 49 million this year to 85 million in 2035. The only way to cut costs here is to kick people out of the program. I don't see that happening.

Wages and prices are the next cost driver. Only two things can be done here. Lower wages for doctors and nurses or make them more productive -- meaning get more work out of doctors and nurses then you get today.

Congress tried to lower wages. It capped payments to physicians using a formula. But when the formula became too tough, forcing deep cuts in wages, Congress relented. Thus the "doc fix" was born. Meaning, Congress voted to pay doctors more. I am not arguing the merits of the formula here, just pointing out that the effort failed.

What about productivity? No surprise, it is harder to measure productivity in a hospital than it is in an auto plant. The hospital's product is good health and an outcome like that is hard to quantify. There is no dispute though that if you could accurately measure health care productivity, it would be low and perhaps even negative!

Some studies found as much as one-third of the spending in our health care system does not improve health, adding up to a staggering waste of more than $700 billion.

What can be done about this? The President has created a panel of experts to study ways to use new payment systems to reward innovation and more efficient treatment of disease.

A worthy goal, but as the Trustees Report points out, efforts to eliminate waste and increase productivity through payment and delivery system reforms:

"These outcomes are far from certain . . . . Many experts doubt the feasibility of such sustained improvements and anticipate that over time the Medicare price constraints would become unworkable and that Congress would likely override them, much as they have done to prevent the reductions in physician payment rates otherwise required by the sustainable growth rate formula in current law."

Republicans want to give consumers more power to choose efficient plans on the theory that this will reward innovation and efficiency. But what happens when the "premium support" payments that Republican propose fail to keep up with the cost of health care? The same thing that happened to physician payments. Congress would likely override them too.

The real problem in Medicare comes when we get to cost drivers three and four. Health care costs are driven by people using more services and more complicated services -- utilization and intensity. In other words, Medicare beneficiaries see health care providers more often and those health care providers are performing more expensive tests and surgeries using new technologies.

Now we are at the heart of the Medicare cost problem. If we're being honest, we must change the way we deliver and consume health care. This is not something that happens overnight or because a bill is written in Washington. It will require constant innovation and reform. We will have to get better at determining which treatments improve health and which do not.

The Brookings Institution's Barry Bosworth put it well in an email: "I think the basic problem is that we cannot say no."

Are we willing to change that? And if not, are we willing to pay for Medicare's rapid growth?

You can having an honest conversation on Medicare means confronting some very difficult questions.


Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/05/an_honest_discussion_on_medica.html

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3 ways to buy into high-demand real estate market

Don't overlook fixer-uppers, withdrawn listings

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/inmannews/~3/fpSkruVMrko/3-ways-buy-high-demand-real-estate-market

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It?s Just What We Do.

I was recently reminded of a story - true or not - about a visit that President John F. Kennedy made to the space center at Cape Canaveral sometime...

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Brokered Conventions, Grand Bargains, and the Turning Tide of Federal Deficits

Every four years -- count on it -- some political reporter will write a story about the odds of a brokered convention. You know, a deadlocked presidential nomination battle that ends when the winner emerges from a smoke-filled room only to find our intrepid reporter has already broken the story!

What could be better for a political reporter than that?

Never happens, but reporters can dream -- and write about it.

The economics reporter must settle for something less cinematic. Our version of the "Odds for a Brokered Convention" story is the "Grand Bargain Struck on Deficit."

There is no smoke-filled room in this narrative, merely a drab conference center at Andrews Air Force Base or some other location where reporters can be kept a respectable distance away. The parties emerge late in the evening to pronounce a deal that turns, not on promises to the Florida delegation, but on adjustments to inflation measurements in the Social Security formula that better reflect the actual rate of change in the cost of living.

(Can you imagine anything better? I thought you could.)

Still, I get excited about talk of Grand Bargains and the odds of this happening -- never good to begin with -- are getting better. The tide is moving to deficit reduction. The last-hour deal to avert a government shutdown can be read as a sign of seriousness and progress.

Next, the President will lay out his long-run budget plan on Wednesday. House Republicans have staked out their position. Our grand bargainers are setting the table.

Or not. The problem with Grand Bargains is that they are rare, in part because they ask too much. Problems are rarely solved in a comprehensive way by a small crowd at the table. More likely, Democrats and Republicans will gather for years at many conference tables, cutting many small and medium-sized bargains along the way. At the end of this -- three years? five? -- we'll look back and declare it adds up to a Grand Bargain. If that happens, it will still be a great story.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/04/brokered_conventions_grand_bar.html

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