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Technology is putting more power in consumers' hands

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Power Town

House Speaker John Boehner this week called for "honest conversations" about Medicare.

Fair enough. Let's begin this honest discussion by admitting no one knows for sure how to reduce Medicare costs. And that's a problem, because Medicare expenditures are projected to grow almost 6% a year for the rest of the decade.

To understand why program costs are exploding, you just have to look through the annual Medicare Trustees report on the financial condition of the program. The 2011 report comes out on Friday, but it will surely have the same analysis you can find in all the other reports. If you want to engage in this honest discussion, a good place to start is on page 45 of the 2010 report. There you will find the four trends driving Medicare costs:

Growth in the number of beneficiaries
Increases in the prices paid per service, which reflect both higher wages for health care workers and higher prices for the goods and services purchased by health care providers
Increases in the average number of services per beneficiary ("utilization")
Increases in the average complexity of services ("intensity")

Let's take these one at a time. The number of Medicare beneficiaries will soar over the next 25 years, rising from almost 49 million this year to 85 million in 2035. The only way to cut costs here is to kick people out of the program. I don't see that happening.

Wages and prices are the next cost driver. Only two things can be done here. Lower wages for doctors and nurses or make them more productive -- meaning get more work out of doctors and nurses then you get today.

Congress tried to lower wages. It capped payments to physicians using a formula. But when the formula became too tough, forcing deep cuts in wages, Congress relented. Thus the "doc fix" was born. Meaning, Congress voted to pay doctors more. I am not arguing the merits of the formula here, just pointing out that the effort failed.

What about productivity? No surprise, it is harder to measure productivity in a hospital than it is in an auto plant. The hospital's product is good health and an outcome like that is hard to quantify. There is no dispute though that if you could accurately measure health care productivity, it would be low and perhaps even negative!

Some studies found as much as one-third of the spending in our health care system does not improve health, adding up to a staggering waste of more than $700 billion.

What can be done about this? The President has created a panel of experts to study ways to use new payment systems to reward innovation and more efficient treatment of disease.

A worthy goal, but as the Trustees Report points out, efforts to eliminate waste and increase productivity through payment and delivery system reforms:

"These outcomes are far from certain . . . . Many experts doubt the feasibility of such sustained improvements and anticipate that over time the Medicare price constraints would become unworkable and that Congress would likely override them, much as they have done to prevent the reductions in physician payment rates otherwise required by the sustainable growth rate formula in current law."

Republicans want to give consumers more power to choose efficient plans on the theory that this will reward innovation and efficiency. But what happens when the "premium support" payments that Republican propose fail to keep up with the cost of health care? The same thing that happened to physician payments. Congress would likely override them too.

The real problem in Medicare comes when we get to cost drivers three and four. Health care costs are driven by people using more services and more complicated services -- utilization and intensity. In other words, Medicare beneficiaries see health care providers more often and those health care providers are performing more expensive tests and surgeries using new technologies.

Now we are at the heart of the Medicare cost problem. If we're being honest, we must change the way we deliver and consume health care. This is not something that happens overnight or because a bill is written in Washington. It will require constant innovation and reform. We will have to get better at determining which treatments improve health and which do not.

The Brookings Institution's Barry Bosworth put it well in an email: "I think the basic problem is that we cannot say no."

Are we willing to change that? And if not, are we willing to pay for Medicare's rapid growth?

You can having an honest conversation on Medicare means confronting some very difficult questions.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/05/an_honest_discussion_on_medica.html

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Yesterday, a group of Wounded Warriors visited the south lawn of the White House to play a game of basketball. Ten Marines arrived from Bethesda Naval Medical Center, donned jerseys, and took some practice layups before the game. As they warmed up, they got pointers from NBA players Greg Monroe and Jeff Green, who came in from Detroit and Boston to show their appreciation for the troops. After a few minutes, the game got underway. It was off to a fast start, but a time-out was called as President Obama walked onto the court.

The President thanked the Marines for the service they had provided and the tremendous sacrifices they had made for their country. He spent some time talking with the Wounded Warriors, and then the group took a picture before the game resumed again.

Wounded Warrior basketball is an important opportunity for injured troops as they return home, according to HM1 Jason Young, a Navy Corpsman who helped organize the game. “What it allows the Wounded Warriors to do is to understand that they can still do some of the stuff that they’ve done before.”

“The guys here all have really great attitudes about everything,” said Corporal Tony Mullis, who played on the Red Team. “They’re not down – that’s why they decided to come here and play basketball at the White House. It’s a great experience.” Mullis was injured by an IED blast while performing combat operations in Afghanistan.

“One of the things I’ve always wanted to do was meet the President,” he added. “It was awesome.”

Ten Wounded Warriors were able to come to the White House yesterday, but all veterans and their families deserve our thanks and our support. To find out what you can do to pitch in, check out joiningforces.gov.

Darienne Page is Assistant Director of the Office of Public Engagement.

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/27/wounded-warriors-shoot-hoops-south-lawn

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Throughout the day, we've seen reports that Congress' switchboards and websites have been overwhelmed by Americans responding to what President Obama said last night:

The American people may have voted for divided government, but they didn’t vote for a dysfunctional government. So I’m asking you all to make your voice heard. If you want a balanced approach to reducing the deficit, let your member of Congress know. If you believe we can solve this problem through compromise, send that message.

At this end of Pennsylvania Avenue, we've noticed a bump in messages from Americans – email is coming in at nearly 5 times the normal rate. About half of those emails were from people interested in the President’s ongoing efforts to find a balanced approach to reducing the deficit and ensuring that the US government lives up to its financial obligations. Contrary to some reports, the White House Switchboard noted a slight increase in calls, but functioned normally throughout the day. Here are a few excerpts of what people are saying:

"Please continue to work and speak out for an end to the partisanship. Both sides in this bitter battle need to knock it off and work together. Revenue increases as well as intelligent entitlement reforms to cut waste and fraud are needed to deal with the debt and deficit issues."

"Mr. President I urge you to consider your place in history, and not merely the moment. You have an opportunity to create an effective, lasting legacy. One in which Americans may be proud. The true mark of some our greatest Presidents is this same issue which now confronts you.Compromise. Please recall that you are a Servant, and it is the will of the people that you compromise- and pass a fair bill regarding the debt of this country."

"I support smart increases in taxes, but the cuts you have outlined are insufficient. I don't see a plan from any party that begins to even cover the deficit let alone the debt. Any family knows you have to make more than you spend. I have to balance my budget every month, why doesn't the Federal Government?"

We've also kept our eye on our social media accounts, including Twitter. In fact, we just wrapped up our first session of "Office Hours" - an online Q & A with NEC Deputy Director Brian Deese. We were also impressed with the number of people who reposted speech excerpts we published through the @WhiteHouse account while the President was speaking last night.

View "President Obama's Speech on the Debt " on Storify

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/26/americans-respond-president-obamas-speech-phone-email-and-twitter

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Realtor Notebook

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Ed. Note: This post will be updated with upcoming chances to join Office Hours and you can see what you missed during past sessions.

We're trying something new on our social networks -- starting this week, senior staff at the White House will hold regular "Office Hours" to answer your questions on a host of issues and topics.

Use the hashtag #WHChat on Twitter to ask administration officials your questions on President Obama’s speech and the ongoing deficit debate. White House staff will respond to your questions in real-time via Twitter during Office Hours. Here's the schedule so far, follow @WhiteHouse for the latest updates and more chances to engage:

Monday, August 1
- 5:00 p.m. EDT: Office Hours with Brian Deese, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council
Tuesday, August 2
- 4:00 p.m. EDT: Office Hours with Jason Furman, Principal Deputy Director of the National Economic Council
Wednesday, August 3
- 4:00 p.m. EDT: Office Hours with Brian Deese, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council

Please note that we will do our best to stick to this Office Hours schedule, but times are subject to change.

Here's what you missed during past Office Hours:

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/26/white-house-office-hours

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Attorney speaks of signs that might signal impending release of two Americans still in custody

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/iran/Lawyer-Iran-Will-Announce-US-Hikers-Verdict-By-Next-Week-126480278.html

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Hundreds of protesters angry about attack staged demonstration outside Quetta medical complex

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/south/Gunmen-Kill-11-Shiite-Muslims-in-SW-Pakistan-126448093.html

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In 2008, I wrote about connections between normal accident theory -- which came from studies of nuclear accidents -- and the subprime mortgage crisis. In light of what is happening in Japan, I think it is worth revisiting normal accident theory. Yes, the crisis in Japan was caused by a natural disaster, but nuclear plants are systems and I am sure we will be learning a lot more about these systems in the days ahead. As we learn more, it will be useful to keep normal accident theory in mind.

So here is an excerpt from my original column which you can find here.

"The issue is not risk, but the issue is power, the power of elites to impose risk upon the rest of us." -- Charles Perrow, Yale Professor of Sociology
Normal accident theory was developed by Yale Sociologist Charles Perrow after the debacle at Three Mile Island. Perrow's fundamental insight is that "accidents" are, in fact, normal events. Rather than blaming failure on a bolt from the blue, we should expect that in any complex system -- a nuclear reactor, the stock market, housing -- there will sometimes occur a series of unusual outcomes which, taken individually, will not trigger a horrific accident. But put them together and you get a crash.

In developing normal accident theory, Perrow found the "interconnectedness" inherent in big systems often led to "baffling" outcomes. In the case of the subprime meltdown, those interactions involved the Federal Reserve, the housing industry, global financial markets and the huge piles of investments managed by hedge funds and banks. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently cited these pools of cash as a factor contributing to the market turmoil.

Between 2000 and 2003, the Fed kept money cheap, lowering interest rates aggressively in order to head off a potentially debilitating spiral of deflation. That decision left these large pools of cash hard-pressed to find good investments. Investment banks saw this pool of capital and decided to create new products made from bundles of mortgages which would meet the demand for higher returns. [It is worth noting another complex interaction: US Treasuries were basically not available to these investors, because the Chinese buy so many of them in order to keep their currency fixed to the dollar.]

It all worked well for a while. But then, as Perrow's theory suggests will often occur, unfamiliar and unexpected things began to happen. Wall Street, seeing a large demand for these new financial products tied to mortgages, began to press home mortgage lenders to increase loan volumes. People with little or no credit began to get bigger and bigger loans. Seeing the success of the bundling of mortgages -- "securitization" is the technical term -- bankers began to use these same techniques in other markets. Loans for buyouts come to mind. Volumes increased and the system began to grow, becoming even more complicated.

Financial markets are also systems that are, as Perrow puts it, "tightly coupled." An action in one system directly impacts and depends upon an action in another part of the system. That is a fair description of the mortgage and securitization process. Loans have to be originated; they must be packaged and quickly sold into the secondary market. There is only one path to success here -- sales into the secondary market. No one wanted to keep these loans on their books, and indeed, seemed to have no contingency for doing so.

Once the pieces began to come apart, there was so little slack in the system no one could engineer a quick fix. Even today, the dispersed nature of bundled securities makes it difficult to rework loans into a structure that makes economic sense.

But it's not enough to understand that our financial and housing markets were flawed and subject to complex interactions. People were also at work here. Someone needed to strike the match and set the lighter fluid burning. In that sense, the housing collapse was not a normal accident. The engineers at Three Mile Island were unaware of the complex interactions between systems that threatened a meltdown. If they had been, Perrow says they would have acted quickly to prevent disaster.

Perrow thinks traders and bankers and mortgage brokers did not try to stop the financial meltdown, because financial markets offer substantial short-term gains, even if it's clear there will be dire long-term consequences. . . .

To get back to the original question: "Who allowed this to happen?" People up and down the system allowed this to happen, because there was no real mechanism to hold them directly responsible for their actions. Many will try to regulate our way back to a safer housing and financial system. I would suggest the best way to start thinking about that process is to focus on accountability. When something goes wrong in a nuclear power plant, the engineer is trying to save his own life along with the lives of those living nearby.

If we want to make sure this doesn't happen again, we need to make sure the people who might cause the next financial crisis are sitting next to the reactor when the yellow caution lights begin to flash.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/03/normal_accident_theory_revisit.html

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Ed. Note: Cross-posted from the USDA blog.

This week, I led a meeting in the Roosevelt Room at the White House with leaders of a host of rural organizations to discuss the White House Rural Council. The White House Rural Council, which was established by President Obama on June 9, 2011, will build on this Administration’s unprecedented efforts to spur job creation and economic growth in rural America. Along with Jon Carson, the Director of the Office of Public Engagement and Doug McKalip of the White House Domestic Policy Council, we discussed the Council’s efforts to improve coordination among federal agencies. We focused in on ways to help better leverage existing federal resources in rural America – and on how to facilitate private-public partnerships that can move the needle in building stronger rural communities.

The meeting was a chance for me to listen to our rural partners on the issues that need to be addressed and discuss potential solutions. Some of the key issues raised included the need to coordinate more with our federal partners on health care, broadband, and other critical infrastructure; how to increase the availability of capital and lending to rural businesses and families; efforts to remove barriers to young and beginning farmers; and strategies for establishing better partnerships with states, tribes, local governments and the private sector. Many of the leaders gathered also expressed appreciation for the renewed focus on rural America and the importance the White House has placed on these issues.

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/28/white-house-roundtable-meeting-rural-leaders

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REThink Real Estate

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This month, I am going to share with you a big project we recently undertook in our home, and show you how my family and I handled our kitchen renovation with a budget of about $15,000. We kept it simple and kept the same floor plan. Moving walls and moving the locations of the sink, [...]

Source: http://www.homefinder.com/news/opening-doors/2011/06/13/how-to-make-big-changes-in-your-kitchen-without-spending-big-dollars/

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A friend of mine recently sold her home, bought a new one, and was preparing for the closing of each in a few weeks. Boxes were packed, and she was ready to move her family into her new home. Then she learned that her buyer?s bank appraised her home for less than what she sold [...]

Source: http://www.homefinder.com/news/opening-doors/2011/06/29/home-appraisals-basics/

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Senate majority says negotiations with the White House are ongoing

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/US-Senate-Postpones-Test-Vote-on-Debt-Ceiling-126468438.html

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Ed. Note: This post will be updated with upcoming chances to join Office Hours and you can see what you missed during past sessions.

We're trying something new on our social networks -- starting this week, senior staff at the White House will hold regular "Office Hours" to answer your questions on a host of issues and topics.

Use the hashtag #WHChat on Twitter to ask administration officials your questions on President Obama’s speech and the ongoing deficit debate. White House staff will respond to your questions in real-time via Twitter during Office Hours. Here's the schedule so far, follow @WhiteHouse for the latest updates and more chances to engage:

Monday, August 1
- 5:00 p.m. EDT: Office Hours with Brian Deese, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council
Tuesday, August 2
- 4:00 p.m. EDT: Office Hours with Jason Furman, Principal Deputy Director of the National Economic Council
Wednesday, August 3
- 4:00 p.m. EDT: Office Hours with Brian Deese, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council

Please note that we will do our best to stick to this Office Hours schedule, but times are subject to change.

Here's what you missed during past Office Hours:

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/26/white-house-office-hours

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HootSuite, Honestly.com CEOs say active approach is key to building rapport

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In September 2009, the President announced that – for the first time in history – the White House would routinely release visitor records. Today, the White House releases visitor records that were generated in April 2011. Today’s release also includes several visitor records generated prior to September 16, 2009 that were requested by members of the public in June 2011 pursuant to the White House voluntary disclosure policy. This release brings the grand total of records that this White House has released to over 1.5 million records. You can view them all in our Disclosures section.

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/29/over-15-million-records-released

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One of the fundamental things to understand when considering the debate about reducing our national debt is how we accumulated so much in the first place.

To explain the impact various policies have had over the past decade, shifting us from projected surpluses to actual deficits and, as a result, running up the national debt, the White House has developed a graphic for you to review and share:

As you can see, we've also included a quote from President Obama's speech last night that sums up the basic issues:

For the last decade, we’ve spent more money than we take in. In the year 2000, the government had a budget surplus. But instead of using it to pay off our debt, the money was spent on trillions of dollars in new tax cuts, while two wars and an expensive prescription drug program were simply added to our nation’s credit card.

As a result, the deficit was on track to top $1 trillion the year I took office. To make matters worse, the recession meant that there was less money coming in, and it required us to spend even more -– on tax cuts for middle-class families to spur the economy; on unemployment insurance; on aid to states so we could prevent more teachers and firefighters and police officers from being laid off. These emergency steps also added to the deficit.

Because neither party is blameless for the decisions that led to this problem, both parties have a responsibility to solve it.

And it's worth noting that, among many others, the Pew Charitable Trusts and the New York Times have addressed this issue too.

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/26/infographic-where-does-our-national-debt-come

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What are the winning qualities home buyers and sellers look for in a real estate professional? �The recent release of the National Association of...

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Location, Location, Location ? it?s all about Location. But sometimes the best location might not be the safest. Now, your house or rental search for the perfect place with the safest neighborhood just got a whole lot easier with Trulia?s brand new Crime Maps!

Crime Maps helps people view, explore, compare, interact and comment on crime [...]

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Your dollar goes farthest in these overseas cities, a recent survey says.

Source: http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=29543462

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What are the winning qualities home buyers and sellers look for in a real estate professional? �The recent release of the National Association of...

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The $35 million penthouse of the St. Regis Hotel in San Francisco is now the most expensive bank-owned residential property on the market. It was listed for $70 million in 2008 by its previous owner.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/video/news-hub-hotel-penthouse-a-bargain-at-35-million/09547D22-AC26-4A64-96B6-11E3DBAD861B.html

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Save time, money and provide better customer service

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The Obama administration has jumped into the never-ending debate between parents, children, and eyes that are too big for tummies. It is clear we are a nation of over-eaters. It begins in childhood, which is why the President wants to limit advertising of unhealthy foods to kids, putting at risk the job security of many an animated cereal mascot.

We live in an age of cut backs. Drive less, spend less, and now, with luck, our kids will eat less too.

To anyone following the debate over kids and food advertising, the discussion about the value of the dollar will sound familiar. For decades, our economic eyes have been too big for our collective tummies. Our trade deficits over the last 18 years total an obscene $7 trillion dollars.

What this means is that we have been living way beyond our means, buying from the rest of the world far more than we can afford. Just as those sugary cereal bowls adds up, so do the debts we have accumulated overseas.

Since things that can't go on forever stop, this too has to stop. But how? One way to stop our foreign buying binge is through protectionism. We can stop trading with the rest of the world. That's not in the cards considering how global markets are now, though polls show Americans are not eager to expand free trade deals. Another way to stop buying more than we can afford is to let our currency depreciate.

A weak dollar acts like a spending diet. The price of consuming foreign goods goes up. An instant economic diet. No advertising censorship needed. That's what is happening now.

The Federal Reserve gets a lot of heat for keeping interest rates low, a policy which discourages investment in the U.S. and weakens the dollar. But the latest readings on the economy show that we are not growing strongly enough now to tolerate higher rates.

The only choice is to go on a dollar diet. We have to live within our means again. That applies to cereal and sugar snacks as well as foreign vacations and fancy imports.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/04/the_dollar_diet.html

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Hong Kong's home prices have skyrocketed in recent years, forcing residents like Yang Lianchun and her family to live in subdivided apartments. She talks to the WSJ about what it's like for a family of four to live in 150 square feet of space.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/video/living-in-hong-kong-tiny-apartment-units/D5A4FF97-A22F-4C6F-89EE-C7C67001A613.html

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Hello Trulia Android Fans and Loyal Users!
Today we’re announcing a new release of our Trulia Android app to give you an even better real estate experience on your Android phone.
Trulia’s Android app already gives you all the great Trulia information you love, including location-based real estate search for listings, rentals and recently sold properties, and [...]

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�An effective social media program requires a significant time investment - and a significant investment in time does not guarantee an effective...

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Today, Trulia announced the launch of Instant Leads, a new Twilio-powered functionality that allows agents to instantly connect to home buyers and sellers using their mobile phones while they?re on-the-go.
Trulia Instant Leads provides instant lead notification to real estate professionals, either via SMS or a live call, helping agents connect with more potential clients and [...]

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TruliaBlog/~3/a_5dwlDQXQg/

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Source: http://blog.foreclosure.com/2011/07/south-florida-real-estate-turning-into-an-investment-destination-for-foreign-buyers-video/

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The term ?go green? seems to be used everywhere. We continually hear how important it is to ?go green? within our homes but other than the easy recycling of paper or plastic, it can be intimidating, and exhausting concerning ourselves with yet another thing to worry about. It is hard enough to decorate our homes, [...]

Source: http://www.homefinder.com/news/opening-doors/2011/06/27/going-green-easier-than-you-think/

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Pending real estate sales had another strong showing in June according to the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) released today by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

The Index, a forward-looking indicator based on home sales contracts, rose 2.4 percent to 90.9 in June, following an 8.2 percent increase to 88.8 in May. The June figure is 19.8 percent above the 75.9 percent number one year earlier, a trough period immediately following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.

The PHSI is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.

A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed and the Index generally assumed to be a predictor of actual sales over the following one or two months as the contracts close. However, earlier this month NAR reported there appeared to be an unusually high cancellation of contracts that were signed in the spring and/or delays of closings. June's existing home sales figures did not reflect the increases predicted by the PHSI and were actually down compared to May.

On a regional basis, the Index fell 0.4 percent to 68.9 in the Northeast and 3.7 percent to 79.7 in the Midwest. Both the South and the West rose, the south by 4.4 percent to 99.2 and the West 6.4 percent to 107.0. All four regions showed strong improvement over June 2010, a month that represented a nadir for home sales. The year-over-year change was 19.4 in the Northeast, 26.4 percent in the Midwest, 19.2 percent in the South and 16.4 percent in the West.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there may be some increase in closed existing-home sales. "For the majority of transactions, the lag time between pending contacts to actual closings is one to two months. Therefore, the two consecutive months of rising activity should lead to overall improvement in closed sales in upcoming months," he said. "Though a higher than normal cancellation rate can hold back final closing figures, it could well be that some past cancellations are nothing more than delayed buying decisions rather than outright cancellations."

Yun said tight credit and economic uncertainty have been constricting the market. "The best way to ensure a more solid recovery in housing is to simply return to normal, sound credit standards so more creditworthy home buyers can get a mortgage," he said.

"Washington also should not rock the boat with policy changes that would negatively impact affordable credit or otherwise increase the cost of buying or owning a home," Yun added.

Existing-home sales this year are expected to total 5.0 million, slightly higher than 2010. Similarly, little change is forecast for aggregate home prices with several indicators, including NAR's median prices, showing recent signs of stabilization.

READ MORE: Home Sales Sag. Contract Cancellations Cited

...(read more)

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Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/07282011_home_sales.asp

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Memory of 76 people killed in last week's bombing and shooting rampage honored

Source: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/europe/Norway-Mourns-Buries-Victims-of-Massacre-126402743.html

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Although aesthetically pleasing, a tree can also mean possible property damage and tussles with the neighbors.

Source: http://www.zillow.com/blog/2011-07-28/tackling-tree-issues-with-your-neighbors/

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Your dollar goes farthest in these overseas cities, a recent survey says.

Source: http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=29543462

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Here's where to live well for less around the world.

Source: http://realestate.msn.com/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=29543756

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Officials say tribesmen were battling militants east of Zinjibar, capital of volatile Abyan province, at the time of air raid

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The apps you need before, during and after your home search Are you in the process of looking for a new home? We?ve got you covered on three apps that can come in handy: one that?s helpful before you go to the house, one for while you are there and one for after you buy. [...]

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Although aesthetically pleasing, a tree can also mean possible property damage and tussles with the neighbors.

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Blasts in Helmand follow series of high-profile attacks, assassinations of Karzai allies

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An increase in contract cancellations caused a decline in the sales of existing homes in June. Still, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), there was a slight rise in home prices.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that home sales had been trending up over the last few months but there were a lot of issues weighing down the market. The underlying reason for the elevated cancellations of pending sales contracts is unclear "but with problems including tight credit and low appraisals, 16 percent of NAR members report a sales contract was cancelled in June, up from 4 percent in May, which stands out in contrast with the pattern over the past year."

Existing home sales, including sales of single family houses, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperatives, declined 0.8 percent from May figures and 8.8 percent from the numbers in June 2010, a month when homebuyers were scrambling to complete purchases under the deadline to qualify for federal tax credits. Sales last month were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million compared to 4.81 million in May and 5.23 million one year earlier.

The decline in sales was most strongly felt in the condo and coop sectors which were down 7.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000 from 570,000 in May and down 18 percent from one year earlier when the rate was 646,000. Single-family home sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million in June, but are 7.4 percent below the 4.58 million pace in June 2010.

Condo and coop sales were down, in part, because of a decline in first time buyers which represented 31 percent of purchases in May compared to 36 percent in June and 43 percent in June 2010 when the tax credit had enticed a lot of first-time buyers into the market. First time buyers make up a large part of the market for condos and coops. Repeat buyers accounted for 50 percent of sales, up from 45 percent in May, an increase NAR said was a normal seasonal phenomenon. The remaining 19 percent of sales were to investors, unchanged from May. Investors made up the bulk of the 29 percent of sales that were cash transactions.

NAR President Ron Phipps noted that lower mortgage loan limits, due to go into effect on October 1, already are having an impact. "Some lenders are placing lower loan limits on current contracts in anticipation they may not close before the end of September. As a result, some contracts may be getting cancelled because certain buyers are unwilling or unable to obtain a more costly jumbo mortgage," he said.

Prices of single family homes rose slightly to a median of $184,600, while the median price of a condo was $182,300. The prices were up 0.6 percent and 1.8 percent respectively from June 2010. Foreclosures and short sales which generally sell at deep discounts accounted for 30 percent of sales in June, compared with 31 percent in May and 32 percent in June 2010.

Sales in the Midwest and South regions rose 1.0 percent and 0.5 percent respectively from May while sales in the Northeast were down 5.2 percent and in the West 1.7 percent. The median price in the Northeast was $261,000, up 3.1 percent from a year earlier. In the Midwest the price was down 5.3 percent to $147,700; and in the South there was a small decrease of 0.1 percent to 159,100. In the West, however the median price was up 9.5 percent year-over-year to $240,000.

Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 3.3 percent to 3.77 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 9.1-month supply in May.

From Reuters: ECONOMISTS REACT...

MICHELLE MEYER, SENIOR ECONOMIST, BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH, NEW YORK

"It's still pretty clear that there are still a lot of fundamental problems in the housing market. There is too much supply and there is not enough demand. There are a lot of distressed properties which are putting a lot of downward pressure on housing prices.

"The housing market is far from normal. We are going to see some signs of improvement in the multi-family sector, but the single family sector is still in a very weak state. There is a long road ahead before we see a well-functioning housing market."

PAUL DALES, SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST, TORONTO, CANADA

"It's a disappointment. What has happened in recent months is housing activity appears to be depressed by unusually bad weather in April and May, which prevents people from going to look at homes and buy them. We were hoping we would get a bounce back but that hasn't appeared to happen, which is a concern.

"People may be put off by economic conditions and outlook. The recent slowdown in the economy might be having a more marked impact on the housing demand and that is a concern for the future.

"DNR has stated that the cancellation rate of contract signings rose from 4 percent to 16 percent. That is very unusual. Normally when a contract is signed, the house is sold. Something has happened that has led to more cancellations. It may be jitters from the recent economic conditions or because banks may have tightened lending conditions, meaning that the financing a buyer hoped to get was no longer available. We don't know for sure but something seems to have rocked the boat a little bit."

BRIAN DOLAN, CHIEF STRATEGIST, FOREX.COM, BEDMINSTER, NEW JERSEY

"This is a look at what's really going on in the housing market and we can see the market is still quite anemic. It's going to be a multi-year process to get out of this."

SEAN INCREMONA, ECONOMIST, 4CAST LTD, NEW YORK:

"It came in on the lower side of expectations. There is really nothing new to say about housing, the market continues to be really soft and demand is really definitely lackluster. There are plenty of headwinds facing housing and this continues to suggest that we are bumping along the bottom."

TOM PORCELLI, U.S. ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK

"It's a disappointment on the face of it, however, as we've continued to highlight, given the supply and demand balance I don't think we should be all that surprised.

"On the face of it the number may not be as bad as the headline suggests. The decline came in condos. Single family housing was relatively flat on the month.

"A couple of interesting nuggets from within the report: First-time buyers actually slipped to 31 percent to 36 percent. That's interesting because first-time buyers tend to gravitate toward condos. Also, if you look at what prices did, they rose on a month over month basis pretty significantly, and that could because first-time buyers slipped.

"We're not expecting all that much from this sector anyway this year."

CARY LEAHEY, ECONOMIST, DECISION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK

"It's like a broken record. The good news is bad news. It's steady and it's been steady for five months. But the pace is running well below historical averages. It's disappointing. But the market knows that the housing recovery is going to be extremely slow and they're fixated on the sovereign debt issues. So it won't generate much interest."

VIMOMBI NSHOM, ECONOMIST, IFR ECONOMICS, A UNIT OF THOMSON REUTERS

"Sales of previously-owned homes surprised to the downside, falling to an annualized sales rate of 4.77mln homes. This contradicts pending sales figures in last month's report which published the first take on May's numbers -- a moderate recovery of 8.2% after contracts fell 11.3% -- implying these buyers would close the deal in the following month. That report undoubtedly encouraged economists to expect a small rise in closed contracts (market forecast 4.9mln), however the number of cancellations -- buyers that back out of the contract -- shot up to 16% in June compared to the habitual norm of less than 10%. June's numbers reflect a continued slowing in activity that is adding to the slack in the housing market making their promising Spring season unimpressive. In the first half of the selling year, EHS' losses have proven more prevalent than the gains. Not only has EHS' monthly movement shown four declines, the declines are steeper than the gains as we can see since sales have yet to climb back to the 5.4mln sales pace posted in the first month of the year)."

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I live in the Midwest and we have had crazy weather in the last few weeks.� We have had wind and rain storms like I have never seen.� Power outages in my area are becoming more frequent but that does not mean we are prepared for them. Though some of you might live in areas [...]

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Foreclosures Home Sales Outlook Housing Starts President Obama

Foreclosure.com today revealed a comprehensive menu of money-making affiliate tools and widgets that enable real estate agents and other website owners to integrate its dynamic nationwide foreclosure and investment property listings database into their websites. Foreclosure.com, which partners with many of the largest names in the online real estate world, as well as individual Realtors� [...]

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No reason given for mass walk-out

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Driven by a dramatic rise in multi-family construction, U.S. housing jumped unexpectedly to of an annualized rate of 629,000 housing units in June. This was an increase of 14.6 percent over May figures which were adjusted down by 11,000 units to 549,000. The +3.5 reported earlier as a May over April increase has now been revised to "unchanged."

According to figures released Tuesday by the Census Bureau, multi-family starts increased by 30.4 percent in June to an annual rate of 176,000 units while single-family starts rose to 453,000, a 9.4 percent increase over May. The Census Bureau said that the June housing starts were the highest seen since January and single-family starts were the highest since last November.

Economists surveyed by Reuters before the data was released had predicted that the June figures would bring the rate to 575,000 units. While June 2011 figures were running 16.7 percent above the rate in June 2010, housing starts still pale in comparison to the two million plus annual housing starts that were common during the peak years of the housing boom.

Other Census data released bodes well for future construction. Housing permits were up 2.5 percent to a 624,000 rate. This is on the heels of an 8.2 percent rise in May. Economists had predicted that June's permitting figures would come in at a much lower rate of 600,000. Single family permits were at a rate of 407,000 only a fractional increase over the revised May figure of 406,000. Permits for units in buildings of five or more units rose substantial from a rate of 134,000 in May to 198,000.

The Commerce Department attributed the rise in housing starts to a growing demand for rental apartments. A press release from the Department said that an overhang of existing homes has "left builders with little appetite to break ground on new projects and is frustrating the housing sector's recovery. But demand for rentals, as Americans shun homeownership because of plummeting home prices, is stemming further declines in the housing market."

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Around 500,000 children in the Horn of Africa are in need of immediate, life-saving help

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The childhood home of Sen. John McCain’s wife, a three-acre spread in Phoenix, Ariz., is in default and headed to the foreclosure auction block on Aug. 15, 2011, according to The Arizona Republic. It’s currently listed for $3 million in a short sale situation, which is $200,000 less than the new owner, an investor, paid [...]

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Like many of us in this business I have been awe struck by the rate of decline in almost everything related to the housing industry over the last...

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By now you have probably hear that the "Gang of Six" senators -- three Democrats and Republicans -- who are trying to strike a grand budget bargain is getting smaller. A spokesman says Sen. Tom Coburn, (R) OK, decided to "take a break" from the Gang yesterday. Others say he left after a shouting match over the deeper cuts he proposed in Medicare.

Budget wonks everywhere were counting on the select six to pull a grand bargain out of their talks. What happened?

In my experience, gangs don't do well in the Senate and for a few good reasons:

1) They wear the wrong tattoos. Street gangs make sure you know who's friend and who is foe. Party ties are the only real gang tattoos that matter in the Senate.
2) The task is always hard. Independent, bipartisan "gang" agreements are not easy to reach on tough issues.
3) The gangs are trying to usurp the legislative process and that creates tension with the real gang leaders who can actually cut deals.
4) Gangs are often used for cover -- to show bipartisan leanings, without actually acting on them.

Of all these, the key reason the Gang of Six failed is #3. When it comes time to declare whether you are "in or out," senators go with the biggest gang there is -- their party.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/nbr/blog/2011/05/the_gang_of_six_five_and_the_b.html

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Almost 85 percent of large cities showed a decrease in foreclosure activity during the first six months of 2011 according to the Mid-year 2011 Metropolitan Foreclosure Market Report released on Thursday by RealtyTrac. This includes the ten cities with the highest foreclosure rate among the 211 metropolitan markets covered by the report and all but one of the top 20.

RealtyTrac 's report usually incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure. This midyear summary does not break out filings by filing type.

Default - Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS);
Auction - Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS);
Real Estate Owned (REO Properties) that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank).

Thirty-three metropolitan areas showed year-over-year decreases in excess of 50 percent and ten had decreases of that magnitude since the previous six-month period. The majority of the cities showing these large drops in foreclosure activity are located in Florida. Only one Florida city, Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, remains in the top 20 for foreclosure activity (at number 12) compared to the first half of 2010 when Florida held nine of the top 20.

While RealtyTrac is silent on any causative factors, one wonders if the dip in Florida indicates systemic problems such as delays for legal reasons rather than any improvement in the housing situation, especially given the persistently high level of unemployment in the state.

California, Nevada and Arizona cities now account for all top 10 metro foreclosure rates and 15 of the top 20 metro foreclosure rates. The remaining five cities were located in Idaho, Georgia, Utah, and Colorado. Despite an 18 percent decline from the last half of 2010, Las Vegas continues to be the city with the highest foreclosure rate with 43,944 filings during the six-month period. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale had the second highest rate with 60,985 filings, a decrease of 8 percent from the previous period and 17 percent from one year earlier.

The sole city among the largest 20 where foreclosure activity was up was Seattle, which increased 10 percent to rank 57 among all 200 cities, up from 97 in the first half of last year. Despite decreases of over 10 percent and 13 percent respectively, two other large cities moved up in the ranks of foreclosure activity. Houston moved from a 109 rank to 91 and Minneapolis from 79 in the first half of 2010 to 64.

A 74 percent year-over-year decrease in foreclosure activity helped push Baltimore's foreclosure rate ranking from number 83 in the first half of 2010 to 182 in the first half of 2011 - the biggest drop in rankings among the nation's 20 largest metro areas. That was followed by Washington, DC, down from 67 in the first half of 2010 to 131 and Boston which moved from number 120 to number 158.

There were two metro areas that showed a huge spike in activity. Des Moines, Iowa had an increase of 149 percent year over year taking it from number 163 on the list to number 55 while Fayetteville, NC went from number 201 to number 170 with a 182 percent increase. A footnote to the Des Moines number indicates that the increase may be due in part to data collection changes but no explanation is offered for the Fayetteville numbers.

"Foreclosure activity continued to slow in the first half of 2011, especially in the most foreclosure-saturated markets and in markets where the judicial foreclosure process is used," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "The 20 metro areas with the biggest year-over-year decreases in foreclosure activity were all in states with judicial foreclosure processes - New York, Maryland, Florida, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Illinois.

"These dramatic decreases indicate the foreclosure pipeline continues to be clogged in many local markets across the country, sometimes by a glut of already-foreclosed properties that are not selling quickly, sometimes by a mountain of improperly filed foreclosures that are blocking the inflow of new foreclosure filings - and sometimes by both."

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Explosion occurred at a mine in Luhansk region, three miners injured

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Two press releases that came out on Monday may point to a new direction for the residential construction market and perhaps for housing policy.

Home builders continue to have little optimism about the new home market according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for July. The index, floating near its bottom for since October 2008, did rise two points to 15 but this only partially recouped the three point drop seen in June.

The NAHB HPI is a composite index of home builder sentiment about the new home market. Builder members of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) are asked for their perceptions of both current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor" and asks them to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores are used to calculate three component indices and the HPI, a seasonally adjusted index. Any number over 50 for the HPI and each of the components indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

The component indices also rose slightly from their terrible June levels. The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points to 15 while the one measuring expectations for traffic over the next six months jumped seven points to 22. The component assessing prospective buyer traffic was unchanged at 12. On a regional basis, the Northeast declined two points to 15 but the Midwest was up one point to 12 and the South and West each gained three points to 17 and 14 respectively.

According to Bob Nielsen, chairman of NAHB, "The improvement in builder confidence in July is a positive sign that the outlook perhaps isn't quite as bleak as was feared in June. While builders continue to confront serious challenges with regard to competition from foreclosed properties that are priced below replacement cost, inaccurate appraisals of new homes, and a very restrictive lending environment for new home construction, select markets are showing gradual improvement as consumers begin to take advantage of very favorable buying conditions."

At the same time, the BuildFax Remodeling Index (BFRI) which tracks building permits and construction starts indicated that May had the highest level of remodeling activity since the Index was first introduced in 2004.

The BFRI is derived from building and permitting information from 4,000 cities and counties throughout the country assembled by BuildFax, a division of BUILDERadius. The BuildFax database currently covers over 60 percent of the US commercial and residential building stock.

The BFRI for May reveals that residential remodeling activity in May registered growth in every region of the country and signifies the 19^th consecutive month of industry growth. According to BuildFax, the data demonstrate that many Americans are remodeling their current homes rather than purchasing new ones.

The May 2011 index was 124.3, the highest number ever. This was a 22 percent year-over-year increase. Each region increased month-over-month with the Northeast up 9.8 points (12%), the South up 7.3 points (7%), the Midwest up 16.3 points (18%), and the West up 8.7 points (7%). Even though the Midwest was up month-over-month, it continues to lag the other regions (as it has for the past three months) in year-over-year performance, down 10.6 points (11%) year-over-year. All other regions were up year-over-year, with the Northeast up 7.2 points (9%), the South up 9.5 points (10%), and the West up 20.7 points (21%).

Joe Emison, Vice President of Research and Development at BuildFax said of the index, "Even with the continued struggles in the economy, the remodeling industry has been a bright spot, as consumers look to make upgrades to their current homes, rather than purchasing a new residence. Based on the trends from the first months of this year, we expect to continue seeing strong gains from coast to coast."

So how does this have any bearing on housing policy? Housing starts continue to lag - the Census Bureau reports they were up 3.5 percent in June from May figures but were down almost an identical amount from June 2010. Builders are simply not going to build until the current inventories of new and existing homes return to more normal levels and the shadow inventory does not loom so ominously over the market.

If the emphasis were shifted from new construction to rehabilitating and improving existing housing stock it could provide a real jump start to the ailing construction industry. Remodeling dilapidated houses lacks the sex appeal of building yet another subdivision or condo complex as well as the economies of scale; but it also lacks the infrastructure costs, conservation headaches, and permitting delays. Returning some of the million plus "off market" vacant property to service as well as improving the stock of REO to useable/salable condition might, while creating construction jobs, also speed up the timeframe for reducing the inventory and returning the market to normal activity.

Adam Quinones, MND's Managing Editor, notes that the Department of Housing and Urban Development has already announced initiatives to rebuild the distressed housing stock. "With so many foreclosed properties sitting empty on the market we can expect remodeling and rehabbing to be a leading indicator of a bottom in the housing market. We already know there is a dearth of affordable rental housing available to low income renters. From that perspective, FHA should open its 203(k) program to investors if they want to accomplish their affordable housing goals."

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